December 14, 2023

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• LME Aluminum 3M Select is up $44/mt, rallying nearly 2% as of this writing.
  • Last trade was $2,189/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • Investment funds, purely speculators in metals markets, have dramatically increased their short position in LME aluminum. As of last Friday, these funds are now net short over 35,000 contracts, making this their largest short position since the early days of the pandemic. The aluminum market is extremely price-sensitive to actions by investment funds, which is likely why aluminum prices fell in early December. (Source: LME)
• LME Copper 3M Select is up $216/mt, bouncing after three days of losses.  
  • Last trade was $8,555/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • Metals prices are rallying this morning after the US Federal Reserve signaled that the cycle of interest rate hikes could be over. Most Federal Reserve governors now expect three interest rate cuts in 2024, for a total of 0.75%. This amplified some analysts' expectations of copper demand and prices for next year. In a note earlier this morning, Morgan Stanley stated, “Copper remains our preferred base metal…. Copper supply disruptions are rising rapidly, driving an even tighter balance for 2024.” (Source: Bloomberg)
• Prompt month CME HRC Steel last settled at $1,067/st (6:45 AM CST).
  • US Steel, which remains a potential takeover target for several competitors, has received multiple offers of $40/share or higher, the company told CNBC yesterday. Cleveland Cliffs has reportedly upped its from $35/share to over $40/share in cash and stock. As CNBC suggested, the sales process appears to be coming to an end. (Source: CNBC)

Price Indications

Today's Charts

AEGIS Insights

12/13/2023: AEGIS Factor Matrices: Most important variables affecting metals prices

12/8/2023: Aluminum and Copper Markets Diverge but Hedging Opportunities Persist for End-Users

12/06/2023: Important US Economic Data (AEGIS Reference)

11/17/2023: Aluminum and Copper End-Users Should Hedge As Inflation Eases

12/13/2023: U.S. Steel received multiple bids in excess of $40 a share, sources say

12/12/2023: Jubilee Metals forms Zambian copper recovery venture with UAE's IRH

12/11/2023: China 2023 steel output set to rise despite property woes

12/8/2023: Anglo's S.African iron ore unit cuts production as rail woes persist

12/8/2023: Panama gov't orders First Quantum to end mining operations, country unit says

12/8/2023: Energy transition investing is caught in traps

Important Disclosure: Indicative prices are provided for information purposes only, and do not represent a commitment from AEGIS Hedging Solutions LLC ("Aegis") to assist any client to transact at those prices, or at any price, in the future. Aegis makes no guarantee to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Aegis and/or its trading principals do not offer a trading program to clients, nor do they propose guiding or directing a commodity interest account for any client based on any such trading program. Certain information in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements, which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “edge,” “advantage,” “opportunity,” “believe” or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Such statements are not guarantees of future performance or activities.