April 12, 2023

• The LME aluminum market is in a steep contango, meaning that futures prices are higher compared to nearby prices.
• The shape of the LME aluminum futures forward curve has been a consistent contango since early January. This encourages traders to "cash and carry" physical inventories, as they can be sold forward at a premium to the spot market.
• The forward curve has shifted vertically lower by approximately $200/mt since early January as LME 3-month prices have fallen.
• Total LME aluminum stocks fell by 19,950 mt to 419,800 mt in March, according to LME warehouse data released yesterday.
• This drawdown stems from the 34,625 mt drop in Indian-origin stocks, which now total 190,275 mt.
• Russian-origin aluminum increased to 220,575 mt, up from 200,600 mt at the end of February, and now represents approximately 52% of LME inventories.
• Nearly 98% of LME stocks are of Indian and Russian origin.

Note: Clients with AEGIS Platform access can see this and other research, plus hedge portfolio reporting and tools here. 

Price Indications

Today's Charts

AEGIS Insights

04/04/2023: AEGIS Factor Matrices: Most important variables affecting metals prices

03/14/2023: Why Are Steel Prices Increasing?

02/24/2023: European Aluminum Smelters Improve, But Not Enough To Entice More Production

02/07/2023: Will Aluminum's Rally Continue?

4/3/2023: Why did OPEC cut oil production? Key reasons explained

4/3/2023: Simmering Macro Uncertainty to Keep Aluminium Prices Rangebound

4/3/2023: Cliffs raises HRC to $1,300/st

4/3/2023: Factbox: Automakers accelerate drive to secure battery raw materials

4/3/2023: Germany's Speira more than doubles aluminium recycling capacity

Important Disclosure: Indicative prices are provided for information purposes only, and do not represent a commitment from AEGIS Hedging Solutions LLC ("Aegis") to assist any client to transact at those prices, or at any price, in the future. Aegis makes no guarantee to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Aegis and/or its trading principals do not offer a trading program to clients, nor do they propose guiding or directing a commodity interest account for any client based on any such trading program. Certain information in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements, which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “edge,” “advantage,” “opportunity,” “believe” or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Such statements are not guarantees of future performance or activities.