June 15, 2023

• LME Aluminum 3M Select is down $22/mt, adding to this week’s losses.
  • Last trade was $2,232/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • Indonesia’s newly implemented ban on bauxite exports won’t affect Chinese alumina production, according to recent statements from Shanghai Metal Market. This is mainly because China’s alumina smelters can fill by purchasing other suppliers, namely Guinea and Australia. In April, nearly 98% of China’s bauxite imports came from those two countries. (Source: Shanghai Metal Market)
• LME Copper 3M Select is down $39/mt, pausing near $8,500/mt.
  • Last trade was $8,487/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • Boliden AB, a Swedish metals producer, has temporarily stopped production at its 218,000 mt/yr Ronnskar, Sweden copper smelter due to a fire. “The main part of the Ronnskar production is expected to be resumed within a few weeks, but we assess that it will take years until the production is fully back to normal since the electronic refinery has to be rebuilt,” a spokesman stated. 
  • In April, the International Copper Study Group predicted that the copper market could be in a 114,000-ton deficit this year. The fire at Ronnskar will likely add to the potential supply deficit this year. (Source: Bloomberg)
• Prompt month CME HRC Steel last traded at $926/st, up $3/st on the day (6:45 AM).
  • Argus’s weekly domestic HRC assessment has now fallen for four consecutive weeks as service centers remain disciplined about purchases, keeping inventory to a minimum. The assessment fell to $880/st this week, down $70/st from the prior week. (Source: Argus)

Note: Clients with AEGIS Platform access can see this and other research, plus hedge portfolio reporting and tools here. 

Price Indications

Today's Charts

AEGIS Insights

06/14/2023: AEGIS Factor Matrices: Most important variables affecting metals prices

05/17/2023: Cobalt End-Users Should Hedge While Market Is Oversupplied

05/3/2023: Copper Producers Can benefit From Hedging Both Inputs and Production

6/14/2023: Forecast For Jun 13-July 12: Weakening Consumption And Expectations For Production Resumptions In Yunnan To Weigh On Aluminium Prices

6/14/2023: Yunnan Likely To Issue Specific Power Load Distribution Notice To Local Aluminium Smelters, Bringing Hope To Partial Restarts Of Nearly 2 Million Mt Of Idled Capacity

6/13/2023: US HRC: Prices fall to lowest since mid-Feb

6/13/2023: US HDG/CRC: Mills drop prices for orders

6/13/2023: China's Yunnan set to boost power to aluminium smelters, sources say

6/12/2023: Rio Tinto to invest $1.1 billion to expand aluminum smelter in Canada

6/12/2023: Russian aluminium stocks at LME grow, boosting demand for Indian alternative

6/12/2023: Glencore, automakers to back $1 bln nickel, copper SPAC deal in Brazil

6/8/2023: NorthAm auto production estimate increases

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