July 13, 2023

• LME Aluminum 3M Select is up $39/mt and is at the highest level since early June.
  • Last trade was $2,277/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • Due to lackluster demand, Japanese aluminum import premiums could be nearly unchanged compared to last quarter. One major aluminum importer has agreed to a $127.5/mt premium over the LME, according to Reuters. This is down slightly from the $130/mt premium that the country’s importers paid last quarter, but far lower than the $165 to $180/mt offerings by global producers.
  • As Japan is Asia’s largest aluminum importer, its import premium is considered a key gauge of Asian demand. (Source: Reuters)
• LME Copper 3M Select is up $79/mt, making new highs for the month.
  • Last trade was $8,592.5/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • LME copper continued its rally yesterday and today after government data showed that Chinese lenders have increased loans to households. Household lending is generally considered a proxy for mortgages, according to Bloomberg. Longer term, this could be met with skepticism, as “Banks usually rush to extend loans at the end of each quarter to meet their lending targets, resulting in a spike in credit in certain months including June,” Bloomberg also stated. (Source: Bloomberg)
• Prompt month CME HRC Steel last traded at $896/st, unchanged on the day (6:45 AM CST).
  • Argus’s weekly domestic HRC assessment jumped again this week as spot prices have firmed coming out of the July 4 holiday. The assessment now stands at $870/st, up $30/mt from last week. It’s unclear if the two-to-four-week outage at Steel Dynamics’s (SDI) Sinton, TX mill will have a meaningful short-term market impact, Argus also stated. According to SDI, the outage should be resolved by the end of July. (Source: Argus)

Note: Clients with AEGIS Platform access can see this and other research, plus hedge portfolio reporting and tools here. 

Price Indications

Today's Charts

AEGIS Insights

07/12/2023: AEGIS Factor Matrices: Most important variables affecting metals prices

07/11/2023: Copper Prices Could Remain Subdued While African Production Grows

06/22/2023: Chinese Metals Imports Could Be the Canary in the Coal Mine for Demand

05/17/2023: Cobalt End-Users Should Hedge While Market Is Oversupplied

7/11/2023: UPDATE 1-Japanese buyer agrees to pay Q3 aluminium premium of $127.5/T -source

7/11/2023: World's biggest gallium buyer says clients stockpiling

7/11/2023: China gallium curbs raise chip questions for future EV models

7/10/2023: SHFE And LME Aluminium Closed With Gains, High Interest Rates And Months Of Sluggish Consumer Spending Have Raised Concerns About US Economic Outlook, Market Pining Hopes On Stimulus Policies In China

7/7/2023: US Trade Representative asks Mexico to address increased steel, aluminum imports

Important Disclosure: Indicative prices are provided for information purposes only, and do not represent a commitment from AEGIS Hedging Solutions LLC ("Aegis") to assist any client to transact at those prices, or at any price, in the future. Aegis makes no guarantee to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Aegis and/or its trading principals do not offer a trading program to clients, nor do they propose guiding or directing a commodity interest account for any client based on any such trading program. Certain information in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements, which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “edge,” “advantage,” “opportunity,” “believe” or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Such statements are not guarantees of future performance or activities.