August 25, 2023

• LME Aluminum 3M Select is up $13/mt and remains in a sideways trend.
  • Last trade was $2,167.5/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • Australia-based South32, which operates two of Africa’s largest aluminum smelters, expects growth in the coming years, the company stated earlier this week. The company expects its Hillside aluminum smelter in South Africa to produce 720,000 mt in 2024 and 2025, up slightly from the 719,000 mt produced in 2023. Meanwhile, its Mozambique-based Mozal smelter should produce 365,000 mt in 2024 and 372,000 mt in 2025, up from 345,000 mt in 2023 and 278,000 mt in 2022. For both smelters, they expect production to reach near-total capacity in 2024 and 2025. (Source: South32)
• LME Copper 3M Select is up $57/mt, recouping most of yesterday’s losses.
  • Last trade was $8,418/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • Analysts continue to point to China regarding the continued lackluster performance of LME copper. In a note earlier this week, ANZ bank stated, "China's beleaguered property sector shows no signs of improving…New starts and buildings under construction have fallen nearly 50% year-on-year. That looks unlikely to reverse in the short term." (Source: Bloomberg)
• Prompt month CME HRC Steel last settled at $803/st (6:45 AM CST).
  • Esmark, a steel products distributor, has pulled its bid to buy US Steel, the company announced late Wednesday. The company cited the United Steelworkers union's relationship with Cleveland Cliffs, a rival bidder, for rescinding its offer. Besides Cleveland Cliffs, only Arcelor Mittal has also expressed interest in US Steel. Arcelor Mittal, a Luxembourg-based steel manufacturing company, has yet to make a formal offer, however. (Source: Bloomberg)

*The LME will be closed on Monday, August 28, due to the UK Late Summer Bank Holiday. We will not produce the Metals First Look that morning. The trading desk will provide CME coverage, and current clients can contact metals@aegis-hedging.com for indications. *

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Price Indications

Today's Charts

AEGIS Insights

08/23/2023: AEGIS Factor Matrices: Most important variables affecting metals prices

08/18/2023: Steel Buyers Can Strengthen Pricing Power During Industry Consolidation

08/03/2023: Important US Economic Data (AEGIS Reference)

07/20/2023: Aluminum Prices Could Hinge on Chinese Stimulus

07/11/2023: Copper Prices Could Remain Subdued While African Production Grows

8/22/2023: US HRC: Prices keep falling, sentiment weighs

8/22/2023: No new Novelis deals to buy Russian aluminium since Ukraine war

8/22/2023: Column: BHP sees China commodity demand as stable. And that's the best case

8/21/2023: Russian miners, Chinese investors interested in Polymetal's Russian assets -FT

8/20/2023: Another Chinese property giant flirts with default

8/20/2023: Citi takes delivery of Russian-origin aluminum on LME -Bloomberg

8/20/2023: Column: Trickle of LME zinc deliveries turns into a flood

8/17/2023: Focus: How U.S. Steel became an acquisition target

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