September 20, 2023

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• LME Aluminum 3M Select is up $32/mt, making new highs for the month.  
  • Last trade was $2,247.5/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • Due to subpar Chinese aluminum demand, Goldman Sachs has lowered its global aluminum supply deficit estimate for 2023 to 634,000 mt, down from their forecast of 997,000 mt. One bright spot for 2023 has been China’s growing solar sector, and Goldman Sachs expects that trend to continue into 2024. Globally, aluminum demand from green sectors will reach 5.5 million mt this year, up 40% year-over-over. According to Goldman’s estimates, approximately 60% of global aluminum demand growth over the coming years will come from green industries. (Source: Bloomberg)
• LME Copper 3M Select is up $38.5/mt after three days of losses.
  • Last trade was $8,348/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • Continuing on Chinese metals demand, copper demand remains lackluster for both the consumer goods and construction industries. According to Henan Yuxing Copper Co., which makes components for air conditioners, “Consumption is lagging the previous few years due to the macroeconomic environment…. The whole industry is finding it very
    ” Approximately 25% of China’s copper demand comes from the construction sector, while about 16% is from consumer goods, according to Citigroup. (Source: Bloomberg)
• Prompt month CME HRC Steel last traded at $704/st, down $2/st (6:45 AM CST).
  • US Steel has temporarily idled its 1.4 million st/yr furnace at Granite City, IL, due to the ongoing autoworkers strike. "Following the announcement of UAW strike actions, we are executing our risk mitigation plan to ensure our melt capacity is balanced with our order book,” US Steel stated. Depending on the duration, this strike could dramatically affect American steel production and prices for steel, aluminum, copper, and other metals. (Source: Argus)

Price Indications

Today's Charts

AEGIS Insights

09/13/2023: AEGIS Factor Matrices: Most important variables affecting metals prices

09/12/2023: Important US Economic Data (AEGIS Reference)

09/08/2023: Despite Price Slump, Hedging is Still Feasible for Steel Producers

08/25/2023: Growing Secondary Aluminum Supply Could Further Weigh on Prices

08/18/2023: Steel Buyers Can Strengthen Pricing Power During Industry Consolidation

9/19/2023: Canadian autoworkers extend negotiations with Ford, delaying a possible strike

9/18/2023: US Steel idles Granite City mill on auto strike

9/18/2023: Rio Tinto shoulders Simandou iron ore bill as Chinese funds delayed - sources

9/18/2023: UPDATE 1-Glencore took low volumes of Rusal aluminium, contract could go to 2025

9/17/2023: China's Aug aluminium imports rise on demand hopes, thin stock

Important Disclosure: Indicative prices are provided for information purposes only, and do not represent a commitment from AEGIS Hedging Solutions LLC ("Aegis") to assist any client to transact at those prices, or at any price, in the future. Aegis makes no guarantee to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Aegis and/or its trading principals do not offer a trading program to clients, nor do they propose guiding or directing a commodity interest account for any client based on any such trading program. Certain information in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements, which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “edge,” “advantage,” “opportunity,” “believe” or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Such statements are not guarantees of future performance or activities.