January 8, 2024

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• LME Aluminum 3M Select is down $24/mt, its fifth consecutive down day.
  • Last trade was $2,248/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • Despite some small drawdowns late last week, LME aluminum stocks remain at higher-than-usual levels. As of this writing, 569,100 mt of aluminum sits in LME warehouses, a six-month high. This is up from 442,500 mt on December 7, the lowest level since February 2023. Most of the recent surge in LME stocks can be attributed to the UK’s recent ban on importing or trading Russian-origin metals. (Source: LME)
• LME Copper 3M Select is down $14/mt, trading near last week’s lows.  
  • Last trade was $8,401/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • Beleaguered copper miner First Quantum Minerals is reportedly in talks to sell its Zambian copper mines to China’s Jiangxi Copper, according to Reuters and Bloomberg. The move would help First Quantum generate much-needed cash, as the company has approximately $1.05 billion of debt maturing in early 2025. According to the National Bank of Canada, the sale could generate between $1.5 to $2.0 billion. Late last year, First Quantum’s flagship mine was closed by the Panamanian government, dealing the company a severe financial blow.   (Source: Reuters)
• Prompt month CME HRC Steel last traded at $1,080/st, down $10/st (6:45 AM CST).
  • Nippon Steel is confident it can complete its deal to buy US Steel, Nippon’s CEO proclaimed late last week. At a Japanese steel conference last week, President Eiji Hashimoto stated, "The deal poses no harm to America... as we will make investment in line with the economic security strategies of the United States and other Western nations." Regarding the union and its members, Hashimoto declared “Taking good care of our employees and labour union is our speciality." Mere days after the deal was announced, the Biden administration affirmed that the deal will face extensive scrutiny. (Source: Reuters)

Price Indications

Today's Charts

AEGIS Insights

1/4/2024: Year-End Review of LME Aluminum, Copper, CME HRC Steel and Hedging Implications for 2024

1/3/2024: AEGIS Factor Matrices: Most important variables affecting metals prices

12/8/2023: Aluminum and Copper Markets Diverge but Hedging Opportunities Persist for End-Users

12/06/2023: Important US Economic Data (AEGIS Reference)

11/17/2023: Aluminum and Copper End-Users Should Hedge As Inflation Eases

1/5/2024: Nippon Steel confident of completing US Steel acquisition

1/5/2024: Exclusive: First Quantum in talks with Jiangxi Copper on sale of stake in Zambian mines-source

1/3/2024: Cleveland-Cliffs Announces Price Increase for Hot Rolled, Cold Rolled and Coated Steel Products

1/2/2024: US construction spending up in November, metals mixed

12/29/2023: Viewpoint: US EAF growth fuels prime scrap demand

Important Disclosure: Indicative prices are provided for information purposes only, and do not represent a commitment from AEGIS Hedging Solutions LLC ("Aegis") to assist any client to transact at those prices, or at any price, in the future. Aegis makes no guarantee to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Aegis and/or its trading principals do not offer a trading program to clients, nor do they propose guiding or directing a commodity interest account for any client based on any such trading program. Certain information in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements, which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “edge,” “advantage,” “opportunity,” “believe” or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Such statements are not guarantees of future performance or activities.