January 10, 2024

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• LME Aluminum 3M Select is unchanged, stalling after yesterday’s small gains.
  • Last trade was $2,242/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • By the end of 3Q2024, Alcoa will close the Kwinana alumina refinery in Western Australia, the company announced on Monday. The company stated that the closure was “based on a variety of factors, including its age, scale, operating costs, and current bauxite grades, in addition to current market conditions.” The nearly 60-year-old refinery, which has a nameplate capacity of 2.2 million mt/year, has been operating at 80% capacity since January 2023. (Source: Alcoa)
• LME Copper 3M Select is up $55/mt, bouncing after yesterday’s steep losses.  
  • Last trade was $8,384/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • The LME Copper Cash – 3M spread, a key gauge of spot demand, has sunk to the widest contango in nearly 30 years. As of this writing, cash is trading at an approximate $104 discount to the benchmark contract, up slightly from the $108 discount on Monday. This steep contango is largely due to poor spot demand amid ample supply. LME warehouse stocks have surged in recent months while demand has sputtered. (Source: LME, Reuters)
• Prompt month CME HRC Steel last traded at $1,083/st, unchanged on the day (6:45 AM CST).
  • After rallying to an 18-month high, iron ore prices in China have slumped in early January, as newly released government data shows that the country’s manufacturing sector remains in a downtrend. China’s Manufacturing PMI, a key gauge of manufacturing activity, continued to contract last month, and is now at the lowest level since June 2023. The country’s manufacturing sector spent most of 2023 in contraction mode. This could remain a burden for global demand. (Source: Bloomberg, China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing)

Price Indications

Today's Charts

AEGIS Insights

1/09/2024: Important US Economic Data (AEGIS Reference)

1/4/2024: Year-End Review of LME Aluminum, Copper, CME HRC Steel and Hedging Implications for 2024

1/3/2024: AEGIS Factor Matrices: Most important variables affecting metals prices

12/8/2023: Aluminum and Copper Markets Diverge but Hedging Opportunities Persist for End-Users

11/17/2023: Aluminum and Copper End-Users Should Hedge As Inflation Eases

1/8/2024: LME copper cash to three month discount hits highest since 1992

1/8/2024: Alumina price panic a sign of future aluminium volatility

1/5/2024: UPDATE 1-Russia's Udokan Copper assesses damage after fire

1/5/2024: Copper prices fall on stronger US dollar - MINING.COM

1/3/2024: SMM Analysis: The PMI For Chinese Aluminum Processing Sectors Remained In Contraction Territory In December, With Environmental Protection-Driven Restrictions Being The Main Drag | Shanghai Non ferrous Metals

Important Disclosure: Indicative prices are provided for information purposes only, and do not represent a commitment from AEGIS Hedging Solutions LLC ("Aegis") to assist any client to transact at those prices, or at any price, in the future. Aegis makes no guarantee to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Aegis and/or its trading principals do not offer a trading program to clients, nor do they propose guiding or directing a commodity interest account for any client based on any such trading program. Certain information in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements, which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “edge,” “advantage,” “opportunity,” “believe” or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Such statements are not guarantees of future performance or activities.