January 11, 2024

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• LME Aluminum 3M Select is up $9/mt, trying to stabilize after the recent losses.
  • Last trade was $2,244/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • Traders could be pulling Russian-origin aluminum from LME warehouses. As of this morning, canceled warrants, meaning the metal is set for delivery, in South Korean warehouses total 37,450 mt, up from a mere 5,750 mt on Friday morning. This was the largest such increase since late September. The LME’s South Korean warehouses are a known repository of Russian-origin aluminum. (Source: LME)  
• LME Copper 3M Select is up $57/mt, adding to yesterday’s gains.  
  • Last trade was $8,448/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • Some analysts are tamping down their bullish expectations on copper. In a note earlier this week, Citigroup stated, “We expect cyclical copper demand to weaken further in 2024 as debt-service burdens rise across mature markets, outweighing China policy upside.” They also believe that copper will trade near $8,500/mt this month before moving lower. Just last month, Citigroup proclaimed that copper could rally to $15,000/mt within the next two years due to increasing demand from the energy transition. (Source: Bloomberg)
• Prompt month CME HRC Steel last traded at $1,069/st, down $9/st (6:45 AM CST).
  • Due to increased production, Indonesia’s share of global nickel supply will soon jump from 50% to 70%, according to analysts interviewed by Bloomberg. Most of this nickel will be exported to China in the form of refined nickel or stainless steel. After Indonesia recently banned exports of nickel ore, several large Chinese companies have invested heavily in Indonesian nickel and stainless steel production. (Source: Bloomberg)

Price Indications

Today's Charts

AEGIS Insights

1/10/2024: AEGIS Factor Matrices: Most important variables affecting metals prices

1/09/2024: Important US Economic Data (AEGIS Reference)

1/4/2024: Year-End Review of LME Aluminum, Copper, CME HRC Steel and Hedging Implications for 2024

12/8/2023: Aluminum and Copper Markets Diverge but Hedging Opportunities Persist for End-Users

11/17/2023: Aluminum and Copper End-Users Should Hedge As Inflation Eases

1/10/2024: Share of Russian aluminium in LME warehouses rises to 90% after UK curbs

1/8/2024: LME copper cash to three month discount hits highest since 1992

1/8/2024: Alumina price panic a sign of future aluminium volatility

1/5/2024: UPDATE 1-Russia's Udokan Copper assesses damage after fire

1/5/2024: Copper prices fall on stronger US dollar - MINING.COM

1/3/2024: SMM Analysis: The PMI For Chinese Aluminum Processing Sectors Remained In Contraction Territory In December, With Environmental Protection-Driven Restrictions Being The Main Drag | Shanghai Non ferrous Metals

Important Disclosure: Indicative prices are provided for information purposes only, and do not represent a commitment from AEGIS Hedging Solutions LLC ("Aegis") to assist any client to transact at those prices, or at any price, in the future. Aegis makes no guarantee to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Aegis and/or its trading principals do not offer a trading program to clients, nor do they propose guiding or directing a commodity interest account for any client based on any such trading program. Certain information in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements, which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “edge,” “advantage,” “opportunity,” “believe” or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Such statements are not guarantees of future performance or activities.