March 28, 2024

Note: Clients with AEGIS Platform access can see this and other research, plus hedge portfolio reporting and tools here. 

• LME Aluminum 3M Select is up $3.5/mt, essentially unchanged.
  • Last trade was $2,306.5/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • After peaking in mid-February, the spread between LME Aluminum Cash and the 3M contract, generally used as a gauge for spot demand, has slumped to the lowest since early January. As of this writing, the LME Aluminum cash contract trades at an approximate $46.25 discount to the 3M contract, down from the 2024 peak of $19.4/mt discount on February 16. This suggests spot demand has fallen, even though prices have been rallying. On Wednesday, Hong Kong-based brokerage Jinrui Futures Co. stated as much, proclaiming, “Buyers have been deterred by recent price gains, spot aluminum
    discounts are widening, and traders are dumping cargoes.” (Source: LME)
• LME Copper 3M Select is down $37.5/mt, continuing the recent losses.
  • Last trade was $8,830/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • Investment funds, generally speculators in metals markets, have started to slow their buying of LME copper while prices hit the highest level in nearly a year. As of last Friday, these investment funds are net long 37,350 contracts, having sold about 500 contracts during the week. Before the recent downtick, investment funds had been steady buyers of LME copper in recent weeks, likely due to production issues. After briefly eclipsing $9,000/mt for the first time since April 2023, copper prices have cooled since mid-March. As of this writing, copper prices are essentially flat on the week, suggesting that funds have done little to no buying. (Source: LME)
• Prompt month CME HRC Steel last settled at $865/st (6:45 AM CST).
• Chile’s lithium production could soon double after it opens up 26 salts for private investment. The tendering process for these salt flats ends in July, and most are expected to receive investments. If you are an end-user of battery metals such as cobalt or lithium hydroxide, please get in touch with AEGIS for strategies. (Sources: Reuters)
• *Please note that our offices will be closed on Friday, March 29, due to the Good Friday holiday. The LME and CME will be closed that day, and the LME will also be closed on Monday, April 1. We will not produce the Metals First Lookeither morning. However, on Monday, our trading desk will provide CME coverage, and current clients can contact metals@aegis-hedging.com for indications. * 

Price Indications

Today's Charts

AEGIS Insights

3/27/2024: AEGIS Factor Matrices: Most important variables affecting metals prices

3/20/2024: Midwest Premium Buyers Should Hedge While Prices Hover at 3-Year Lows, and Demand Appears To Be Stabilizing

3/14/2024: Important US Economic Data (AEGIS Reference)

2/27/2024: Aluminum Consumers Should Still Implement Hedges, Even Though Russia Sanctions Mean Little

2/2/2024: China's Real Estate Woes Provide Opportunity for Copper Consumers

1/25/2024: Aluminum Starts 2024 On a Down Note, But Potential Supply Shocks Give Consumers a Reason to Hedge

3/27/2024: Chile opens lithium salt flats for investment, saves two for state control

3/25/2024: America's lithium laws fail to keep pace with rapid development

3/24/2024: Copper registers strongest seasonal Shanghai stocks build

3/22/2024: Congo overtakes Peru on copper output, still behind on exports

Important Disclosure: Indicative prices are provided for information purposes only, and do not represent a commitment from AEGIS Hedging Solutions LLC ("Aegis") to assist any client to transact at those prices, or at any price, in the future. Aegis makes no guarantee to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Aegis and/or its trading principals do not offer a trading program to clients, nor do they propose guiding or directing a commodity interest account for any client based on any such trading program. Certain information in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements, which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “edge,” “advantage,” “opportunity,” “believe” or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Such statements are not guarantees of future performance or activities.