April 19, 2024

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• LME Aluminum 3M Select is up $41/mt, adding to this week’s strength.
  • Last trade was $2,651/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • Investment fund positioning in LME aluminum surged again last week, according to the LME’s most recent COT report. As of last Friday, investment funds, generally speculators in metals markets, are net long approximately 75,720 contracts, making this the largest net long position they have had in nearly two years. Given the price surge this week amid the US, UK, and LME’s ban on imports and deliveries of newly produced Russian aluminum, it's likely that investment funds added to this already significant long position this week. (Source: LME)
• LME Copper 3M Select is up $95/mt, making new highs for the week.
  • Last trade was $9,838/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • Like aluminum, investment funds continue to buy LME copper, albeit at a lower volume. Last week, according to the same COT report, these funds added approximately 4,500 (net) contracts to their long position. This brings the total net long position to about 44,800 contracts, the highest level since early 2021. AEGIS cautions that the position in early 2021 was a record, and it's unclear if funds will set a new record in the coming days or weeks. (Source: LME)
• Prompt month CME HRC Steel last settled at $845/st (6:45 AM CST).
• Due to pressure from the US, Mexico will not grant tax cuts or low-cost public land to Chinese EV producers. This could ultimately affect the supply and demand (and therefore prices) of lithium hydroxide or other battery metals here in the US. If you are an end-user of battery metals such as cobalt or lithium hydroxide, please contact AEGIS for strategies. (Source: Reuters)

Price Indications

Today's Charts

AEGIS Insights

4/17/2024: AEGIS Factor Matrices: Most important variables affecting metals prices

4/3/2024: Important US Economic Data (AEGIS Reference)

3/20/2024: Midwest Premium Buyers Should Hedge While Prices Hover at 3-Year Lows, and Demand Appears To Be Stabilizing

2/27/2024: Aluminum Consumers Should Still Implement Hedges, Even Though Russia Sanctions Mean Little

2/2/2024: China's Real Estate Woes Provide Opportunity for Copper Consumers

1/25/2024: Aluminum Starts 2024 On a Down Note, But Potential Supply Shocks Give Consumers a Reason to Hedge

4/18/2024: Exclusive: Mexico, facing US pressure, will halt incentives to Chinese EV makers

4/17/2024: US to reimpose oil sanctions on Venezuela over election concerns

4/17/2024: Biden calls for higher tariffs on Chinese steel

4/17/2024: Russia is in close contact with metals industry after sanctions, Kremlin says

4/17/2024: Glencore acts to profit from LME post-sanction rule change

4/16/2024: Japan's Nissan bets on solid-state batteries, gigacasting for next-gen EVs

4/16/2024: Carbon capture will not play major role in steel decarbonisation, report says

4/15/2024: 'No immediate supply-demand shock' from LME ban on Russian metals, Goldman says

4/15/2024: Exclusive: Russia and China trade new copper disguised as scrap to skirt taxes, sanctions

4/15/2024: Global mining investment too low to support energy transition, Rio Tinto chairman says

4/15/2024: North Carolina approves mining permit for Tesla supplier Piedmont Lithium

4/13/2024: LME Press Releases

4/12/2024: United States and United Kingdom Take Action to Reduce Russian Revenue from Metals

Important Disclosure: Indicative prices are provided for information purposes only, and do not represent a commitment from AEGIS Hedging Solutions LLC ("Aegis") to assist any client to transact at those prices, or at any price, in the future. Aegis makes no guarantee to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Aegis and/or its trading principals do not offer a trading program to clients, nor do they propose guiding or directing a commodity interest account for any client based on any such trading program. Certain information in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements, which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “edge,” “advantage,” “opportunity,” “believe” or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Such statements are not guarantees of future performance or activities.