April 25, 2024

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• LME Aluminum 3M Select is up $27/mt, bouncing after three days of losses.
  • Last trade was $2,610/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • Investment funds, which are mainly speculators in metals markets, continue to increase their long position in LME aluminum. According to the LME’s most recent COT report, out Tuesday, these funds are net long approximately 93,250 contracts, having purchased about 17,500 contracts (net) last week alone. Since the beginning of March, these funds have purchased over 115,000 (net) contracts, flipping from a modest short position to their largest long position in nearly two years. (Source: LME)
• LME Copper 3M Select is up $140/mt, retesting this week’s highs.
  • Last trade was $9,930/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • Continuing on fund positioning, investment funds have now established their largest-ever long position in LME Copper. As of last Friday, these funds are net long about 50,700 contracts, eclipsing the prior record from early 2021 by about 2,800 contracts. Fund buying might slow or stop in the coming days or weeks, especially since prices were unable to break the psychological resistance level of $10,000/mt. Also, end-user demand in top-consumer appears to be stalling and could give investors a reason to pause. (Source: LME)
• Prompt month CME HRC Steel last traded at $814/st, up $4/st (6:45 AM CST).
• On Tuesday, Mexico announced new tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum for countries in which it does not have a free trade agreement. The repercussions of these new tariffs are yet to be known, but two well-known US-based aluminum industry organizations slammed the ruling, stating that the tariffs do not address how much aluminum is imported into Mexico, remelted, and then sent to the US. We are currently working on a blog post to detail this further and aim to get it published shortly. If you are concerned about the potential impact and/or would like to discuss hedging strategies, please reach out to AEGIS.

Price Indications

Today's Charts

AEGIS Insights

4/24/2024: AEGIS Factor Matrices: Most important variables affecting metals prices

4/3/2024: Important US Economic Data (AEGIS Reference)

3/20/2024: Midwest Premium Buyers Should Hedge While Prices Hover at 3-Year Lows, and Demand Appears To Be Stabilizing

2/27/2024: Aluminum Consumers Should Still Implement Hedges, Even Though Russia Sanctions Mean Little

2/2/2024: China's Real Estate Woes Provide Opportunity for Copper Consumers

1/25/2024: Aluminum Starts 2024 On a Down Note, But Potential Supply Shocks Give Consumers a Reason to Hedge

4/23/2024: Mexico sets tariffs up to 50 percent on certain steel imports

4/23/2024: U.S. Aluminum Extruders Coalition Comments on Mexico Tariff Announcement – U.S. Aluminum Extruders Coalition

4/23/2024: LME moves to stop gaming of Russian aluminium sanctions-based rule

4/23/2024: First Quantum Minerals cuts debt by over $1 bln in first quarter

4/23/2024: Gold holds steady as focus turns to U.S. economic data

4/23/2024: Miner Freeport-McMoRan beats quarterly profit estimates on strong production

4/23/2024: Zambia seeks power imports for key mining sector

4/23/2024: Shortages key to copper's upward price trajectory to new peaks

4/22/2024: Chile's Antofagasta CEO foresees higher 2024 copper prices, plans growth at home

4/22/2024: Codelco eyeing more output, not competition with BHP, Chile's mining minister says

4/22/2024: Chile's president says Codelco output to grow; touts investment climate

4/22/2024: Copper output at Chile's Codelco set to rise this year, CESCO says

Important Disclosure: Indicative prices are provided for information purposes only, and do not represent a commitment from AEGIS Hedging Solutions LLC ("Aegis") to assist any client to transact at those prices, or at any price, in the future. Aegis makes no guarantee to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Aegis and/or its trading principals do not offer a trading program to clients, nor do they propose guiding or directing a commodity interest account for any client based on any such trading program. Certain information in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements, which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “edge,” “advantage,” “opportunity,” “believe” or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Such statements are not guarantees of future performance or activities.