May 2, 2024

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• LME Aluminum 3M Select is down $41/mt, the lowest level in over two weeks.
  • Last trade was $2,546/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • Contrary to normal trading and price reaction, LME aluminum prices fell while spec traders increased their long position. As of last Friday, investment funds, generally speculators in metals markets, bought a net 9,200 contracts, bringing their total net long position to approximately 103,460 contracts. However, prices fell about 4% last week while funds were increasing their net long position. This is highly unusual, as investment fund positioning is normally positively correlated with price action. (Source: LME)
• LME Copper 3M Select is down $106/mt, wiping out last week’s gains.
  • Last trade was $9,791/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • Meanwhile, in the copper market, both prices and investment funds’ long position increased. Investment funds purchased about 4,950 net contracts, while prices rose by roughly 1%. This should be considered normal, positively-correlated action. Investment funds are now net long 55,660 contracts, reaching another new all-time high last week. (Source: LME)
• Prompt month CME HRC Steel last settled at $810/st /st (6:45 AM CST).
• The US and the Phillippines are in talks to increase nickel trading and production. According to unnamed sources interviewed by Bloomberg, “One measure under consideration is a trilateral arrangement through which the Philippines would supply raw nickel material, the U.S. would provide financing, and a third country such as Japan, South Korea or Australia would offer the technology required for smelting and refining.” If you are a stainless steel producer and are concerned about the price implications this could have, please get in touch with AEGIS for strategies. (Source: Bloomberg)

Price Indications

Today's Charts

AEGIS Insights

5/1/2024: AEGIS Factor Matrices: Most important variables affecting metals prices

4/25/2024: Mexico's New Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum Imports Create Uncertainty in US Markets

4/3/2024: Important US Economic Data (AEGIS Reference)

3/20/2024: Midwest Premium Buyers Should Hedge While Prices Hover at 3-Year Lows, and Demand Appears To Be Stabilizing

2/27/2024: Aluminum Consumers Should Still Implement Hedges, Even Though Russia Sanctions Mean Little

2/2/2024: China's Real Estate Woes Provide Opportunity for Copper Consumers

1/25/2024: Aluminum Starts 2024 On a Down Note, But Potential Supply Shocks Give Consumers a Reason to Hedge

4/30/2024: Anglo to meet top shareholders on BHP bid as takeover rules restrain AGM

4/28/2024: Saudi Arabia set on securing lithium for EV ambitions

4/27/2024: BHP considering improved proposal for Anglo American after bid rejected, source says

4/26/2024: Beer can maker Ball Corp lags sales estimates on slowing demand | Reuters

Important Disclosure: Indicative prices are provided for information purposes only, and do not represent a commitment from AEGIS Hedging Solutions LLC ("Aegis") to assist any client to transact at those prices, or at any price, in the future. Aegis makes no guarantee to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Aegis and/or its trading principals do not offer a trading program to clients, nor do they propose guiding or directing a commodity interest account for any client based on any such trading program. Certain information in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements, which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “edge,” “advantage,” “opportunity,” “believe” or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Such statements are not guarantees of future performance or activities.