August 1, 2023

• LME Aluminum 3M Select is down $28/mt yet remains rangebound.
  • Last trade was $2,259/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • Some previously curtailed aluminum production in China’s Yunnan province is coming back online, and Shanghai Metal Market predicts that some large smelters could reach full capacity by the end of August. This could potentially lead to a record operating capacity. As for demand, the impact of recent economic stimulus measures is yet to be known, largely because most downstream end-users are in their “off-season.” (Source: Shanghai Metal Market)
• LME Copper 3M Select is down $86/mt but remains above short-term resistance.
  • Last trade was $8,750/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • In July, LME Copper had its biggest jump since January, mainly due to China’s efforts to stimulate its slumping real estate sector. China is also looking into ways to boost copper in other sectors as well. according to Bloomberg reports from Monday, Chinese officials are currently looking into ways to boost demand for electric vehicles that require large volumes of copper, aluminum, and other metals. (Source: Bloomberg)
• Prompt month CME HRC Steel last traded at $827/st, up $2/st (6:45 AM CST).
  • Like its competitors, Toyota has also experienced an uptick in global car sales in 2023. In the first half of 2023, the company sold 4.9 million vehicles, up from 4.7 million in 1H2022. Japan was the largest growth source, with sales jumping over 33% in the period. Sales in the US and China slipped, however. The global automotive sector is one of the largest markets for flat-rolled steel. According to the American Iron and Steel Institute, the average North American vehicle uses nearly 1,480 lbs of flat-rolled steel products. (Source: Reuters, Argus)

Note: Clients with AEGIS Platform access can see this and other research, plus hedge portfolio reporting and tools here. 

Price Indications

Today's Charts

AEGIS Insights

07/26/2023: AEGIS Factor Matrices: Most important variables affecting metals prices

07/20/2023: Aluminum Prices Could Hinge on Chinese Stimulus

07/11/2023: Copper Prices Could Remain Subdued While African Production Grows

06/22/2023: Chinese Metals Imports Could Be the Canary in the Coal Mine for Demand

05/17/2023: Cobalt End-Users Should Hedge While Market Is Oversupplied

7/31/2023: Summary of SMM Aluminium Morning Meeting on July 31, 2023

7/28/2023: Chile's Codelco sees lower copper output, more stoppages in 2023

7/28/2023: Toyota's global sales rise 5.1% to 4.9 million in first half of 2023

7/28/2023: Rusal considers restart of aluminium smelter in Nigeria

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