August 7, 2023

• LME Aluminum 3M Select is down $4.5/mt, hovering nearly unchanged.
  • Last trade was $2,234.5/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • Rusal, Russia’s top aluminum producer, likely had steady aluminum output in 1H2023 compared to last year, according to Bloomberg calculations. Even though it was shut off from its alumina smelter in Ukraine due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and blocked from Australian imports, Rusal was able to secure the critical raw material from other sources. Profit margins shrunk, however, as alumina costs jumped while aluminum prices dropped. (Source: Bloomberg)
• LME Copper 3M Select is down $6.5/mt, having a quiet start to the week.
  • Last trade was $8,542/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • BMO Capital recently warned that copper usage might grow at a slower than initially expected pace if end-users seek out alternatives. Initially, the researcher estimated that copper consumption could grow by 3%/year through 2030. Price spikes and supply fears could cut growth to only 1.3%/yr, if manufacturers switch to fiber optics, aluminum, and other materials, they also stated. (Source: Bloomberg)
• Prompt month CME HRC Steel last settled at $803/st (6:45 AM CST).
  • The American steel market continues to slow. Shunning longer-term contracts, most steel service centers are comfortable with current inventory levels but will dip into the spot market if necessary. Interest in imports has also slowed due to longer-than-normal lead times. (Source: Argus)

Note: Clients with AEGIS Platform access can see this and other research, plus hedge portfolio reporting and tools here. 

Price Indications

Today's Charts

AEGIS Insights

08/03/2023: Important US Economic Data (AEGIS Reference)

08/02/2023: AEGIS Factor Matrices: Most important variables affecting metals prices

07/20/2023: Aluminum Prices Could Hinge on Chinese Stimulus

07/11/2023: Copper Prices Could Remain Subdued While African Production Grows

06/22/2023: Chinese Metals Imports Could Be the Canary in the Coal Mine for Demand

05/17/2023: Cobalt End-Users Should Hedge While Market Is Oversupplied

8/3/2023: Column: Rio Tinto counts the cost of producing green aluminium

8/2/2023: Factbox: The complexity of transforming rare earths from mine to magnet

8/2/2023: Trafigura seeks extra funds as Congo project costs overrun, Bloomberg reports

8/1/2023: UPDATE 1-Japan buyers agree to pay Q3 aluminium premium of $127.5/T -sources

8/1/2023: US HRC: Prices slip, market slows

8/1/2023: Nucor keeps plate pricing flat

8/1/2023: Column: China imports less refined copper but raw materials surge

7/31/2023: Summary of SMM Aluminium Morning Meeting on July 31, 2023

7/28/2023: Chile's Codelco sees lower copper output, more stoppages in 2023

7/28/2023: Toyota's global sales rise 5.1% to 4.9 million in first half of 2023

7/28/2023: Rusal considers restart of aluminium smelter in Nigeria

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