August 9, 2023

• LME Aluminum 3M Select is up $3/mt, hovering near unchanged.
  • Last trade was $2,201/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • India-based Hindalco, which is one of Asia’s largest primary aluminum producers, remains bullish on domestic demand due to electrification projects. They also stated that rising imports from China are a concern. The company is also stockpiling low-priced coal and now has higher-than-usual coal inventories. Due in part to this lower-priced coal, production costs fell by 4% last quarter, and are expected to fall another 3% this quarter. (Source: Bloomberg)
• LME Copper 3M Select is up $42/mt, bouncing slightly after three days of losses.
  • Last trade was $8,420/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • Weak Chinese economic data continues to be a burden for copper. Last month, exports in dollar terms fell by 14.5% compared to July 2022, making it the worst drop since February 2020, while imports fell by 12.4%. This slump confirms that it will likely take several months for the recent stimulus measures to have a meaningful impact on demand. (Source: Bloomberg)
• Prompt month CME HRC Steel last traded at $797/st, down $5/st on the day (6:45 AM CST).
  • AutoForecast Solutions, a US automotive market researcher, continues to lower its 2023 US auto production forecast. According to their most recent estimates, the US auto producer will produce 342,000 fewer vehicles this year, while 300,000 are at risk. The researcher cites continued supply chain issues, along with a potential UAW strike for the current and potential production woes. The North American automotive sector is one of the largest markets for flat-rolled steel, as the average North American vehicle uses nearly 1,480 lbs of flat-rolled steel products. (Source: Argus, American Iron and Steel Institute)

Note: Clients with AEGIS Platform access can see this and other research, plus hedge portfolio reporting and tools here. 

Price Indications

Today's Charts

AEGIS Insights

08/09/2023: AEGIS Factor Matrices: Most important variables affecting metals prices

08/03/2023: Important US Economic Data (AEGIS Reference)

07/20/2023: Aluminum Prices Could Hinge on Chinese Stimulus

07/11/2023: Copper Prices Could Remain Subdued While African Production Grows

06/22/2023: Chinese Metals Imports Could Be the Canary in the Coal Mine for Demand

05/17/2023: Cobalt End-Users Should Hedge While Market Is Oversupplied

8/7/2023: NorthAm auto cuts estimate rise by 40,000

8/7/2023: Aurubis upbeat for full-year profit as quarterly earnings surge 20%

8/4/2023: Nucor gets final permit for W Virginia mill

8/4/2023: US discussed 'creative ways' to help landlocked Mongolia export rare earths, officials say

8/3/2023: Novelis Reports First Quarter Fiscal Year 2024 Results

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