August 15, 2023

• LME Aluminum 3M Select is unchanged on the day.
  • Last trade was $2,143.5/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • Bloomberg continues to fine-tune its production estimates for Russia’s top producer, Rusal. Even though alumina costs could jump another 4% in 2H2023 after rising 55% in 1H2023, Rusal’s aluminum production will likely be unchanged. Costs for alumina, the key raw material for aluminum production, have risen as Rusal has had to find external supplies. Rusal is currently shut off from most of its non-domestic alumina sources due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and sanctions. (Source: Bloomberg)
• LME Copper 3M Select is down $102/mt and is now trading at the lowest level since late June.
  • Last trade was $8,190/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • With its third CEO in less than a year, Chile’s embattled state-owned copper miner, Codelco, aims to improve finances by reducing debt while increasing production. Its current debt obligations are nearing $19 billion and could balloon to $30 billion within the next four years if finances do not improve, researcher Cesco recently stated. This growing debt pile comes while Codelco’s production is at the lowest level in nearly 25 years amid soaring production costs and falling ore grades. As reported last week, the company is working with neighboring miner Anglo American on ways to improve efficiencies and grow production volumes. (Source: Bloomberg)
• Prompt month CME HRC Steel last settled at $804/st (6:45 AM CST).
  • Due to increased competition and lower raw material costs, several large Chinese electric vehicle producers are slashing prices to boost sales ahead of the peak demand season, market participants recently told Argus. At 4.526 million units, China's total new energy vehicle (NEV) sales in January through July jumped 42% compared to last year, according to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. Already with 70 domestic EV producers and more expected due to the country’s decarbonization efforts, China’s EV sector is a growing Chinese steel demand. (Source: Argus) 

Note: Clients with AEGIS Platform access can see this and other research, plus hedge portfolio reporting and tools here. 

Price Indications

Today's Charts

AEGIS Insights

08/09/2023: AEGIS Factor Matrices: Most important variables affecting metals prices

08/03/2023: Important US Economic Data (AEGIS Reference)

07/20/2023: Aluminum Prices Could Hinge on Chinese Stimulus

07/11/2023: Copper Prices Could Remain Subdued While African Production Grows

06/22/2023: Chinese Metals Imports Could Be the Canary in the Coal Mine for Demand

05/17/2023: Cobalt End-Users Should Hedge While Market Is Oversupplied

8/11/2023: India's Jindal Steel posts drop in Q1 profit on higher expenses, fall in prices

8/11/2023: Australia's South32 to halt some Appin mine operations amid workers strike

8/11/2023: Steelmaker SSAB to furlough workers in Finland

8/9/2023: US HRC: Prices flat, market stagnates

8/7/2023: NorthAm auto cuts estimate rise by 40,000

8/7/2023: Aurubis upbeat for full-year profit as quarterly earnings surge 20%

8/4/2023: Nucor gets final permit for W Virginia mill

8/4/2023: US discussed 'creative ways' to help landlocked Mongolia export rare earths, officials say

8/3/2023: Novelis Reports First Quarter Fiscal Year 2024 Results

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