August 17, 2023

• LME Aluminum 3M Select is up $36/mt, bouncing off the lows of 2023.
  • Last trade was $2,176/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • As manufacturing activity in China, Europe, and the US continues to shrink, aluminum demand remains grim. Coupled with weak global demand, production in top-producer China remains near record highs, thereby weighing on global prices. As Bank of America recently proclaimed, “The demand side has taken over in terms of weakness on aluminum. It’s not just China, it’s all over. There are no shortages.” (Source: Reuters)
• LME Copper 3M Select is up $91/mt, recovering slightly from two-month lows.
  • Last trade was $8,264/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • Like aluminum, copper prices have tumbled on poor demand. Specifically regarding Chinese demand, the country’s faltering real estate sector continues to be a burden on copper. Last month, new home prices, which are generally seen as a proxy for housing demand, fell by 0.23%, the first price drop in 2023. Several large real estate developers have missed recent bond payments, thereby signaling a potential default. (Source: Bloomberg)
• Prompt month CME HRC Steel last traded at $807/st, down $4/st (6:45 AM CST).
  • After proposing a $7.8 billion deal to buy out US Steel, Esmark’s CEO proclaimed in an interview on Tuesday that he has the funds “in the bank” to complete the deal. He later clarified that they have $10 billion in cash and the company has no debt. This compares to Cleveland Cliffs’ recently rejected, where the company would have used stock and borrowed funds to complete the deal. (Source: Reuters)

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Price Indications

Today's Charts

AEGIS Insights

08/16/2023: AEGIS Factor Matrices: Most important variables affecting metals prices

08/03/2023: Important US Economic Data (AEGIS Reference)

07/20/2023: Aluminum Prices Could Hinge on Chinese Stimulus

07/11/2023: Copper Prices Could Remain Subdued While African Production Grows

06/22/2023: Chinese Metals Imports Could Be the Canary in the Coal Mine for Demand

05/17/2023: Cobalt End-Users Should Hedge While Market Is Oversupplied

8/16/2023: Demand headwinds mean no respite in pressure on aluminium prices

8/15/2023: China's economic woes mount as trust firm misses payments, home prices fall

8/15/2023: China's aluminium production soars in July with optimistic outlook for August

8/14/2023: China's July crude steel output eases on production curbs

8/14/2023: Esmark CEO says has money in bank account for $7.8 billion US Steel bid

8/14/2023: U.S. Steel shares jump after Esmark makes $7.8-billion offer

8/14/2023: Surpluses, low prices to remain a feature of cobalt market

8/14/2023: China's July crude steel output eases on production curbs

8/14/2023: China-based EV manufacturers cut vehicle prices

8/14/2023: US Steel rejects Cliffs' takeover bid

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