January 30, 2024

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• LME Aluminum 3M Select is up $9/mt, recouping yesterday’s losses.
  • Last trade was $2,251/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • Since last Thursday, China’s aluminum inventories surged 7% to 467,100 mt, according to Shanghai Metal Market's most recent inventory report, out yesterday. This recent inflow comes after inventories had dwindled to the lowest level since 2017. China’s aluminum inventories usually begin to increase before the country starts its New Year’s celebration in February and normally peak in early spring. This year, China’s 8-day-long New Year celebration starts on Saturday, February 10. (Source: Bloomberg, SMM)
• LME Copper 3M Select is down $16/mt, continuing the recent sideways pattern.
  • Last trade was $8,562/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • Codelco, Chile’s state-owned copper miner and the world’s largest producer, issued two tranches of debt last week, albeit at higher interest rates than several other recent sales. As several analysts interviewed by Bloomberg recently stated, debt buyers are willing to finance Codelco’s new projects, but these creditors remain leery about Codelco's growing debt pile. S&P Global recently stated, “There’s no clear direction and the company is losing profitability and volume, and that makes it more vulnerable to price drops. This path of continuing to issue debt to finance deficits clearly deteriorates the credit profile.” (Source: Bloomberg)
• Prompt month CME HRC Steel last settled at $1,077/st (6:45 AM CST).
  • Prompt month prices for ferrous busheling scrap, a key raw material for most American steel production, has fallen dramatically in January. Yesterday, the prompt month (now February) CME Ferrous Busheling Scrap contract settled at $475/gross ton. On January 1, the prompt month (January) contract hovered near $535/gross ton. American steel production has fallen recently, reducing the demand for busheling scrap. (Source: CME)

Price Indications

Today's Charts

AEGIS Insights

1/25/2024: Aluminum Starts 2024 On a Down Note, But Potential Supply Shocks Give Consumers a Reason to Hedge

1/24/2024: AEGIS Factor Matrices: Most important variables affecting metals prices

1/11/2024: Important US Economic Data (AEGIS Reference)

1/4/2024: Year-End Review of LME Aluminum, Copper, CME HRC Steel and Hedging Implications for 2024

12/8/2023: Aluminum and Copper Markets Diverge but Hedging Opportunities Persist for End-Users

1/29/2024: ArcelorMittal South Africa in talks to avert factory closure

1/28/2024: Column: Another US primary aluminum smelter bites the dust

1/27/2024: Chinese companies to invest up to $7 billion in Congo mining infrastructure

Important Disclosure: Indicative prices are provided for information purposes only, and do not represent a commitment from AEGIS Hedging Solutions LLC ("Aegis") to assist any client to transact at those prices, or at any price, in the future. Aegis makes no guarantee to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Aegis and/or its trading principals do not offer a trading program to clients, nor do they propose guiding or directing a commodity interest account for any client based on any such trading program. Certain information in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements, which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “edge,” “advantage,” “opportunity,” “believe” or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Such statements are not guarantees of future performance or activities.