February 22, 2024

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• LME Aluminum 3M Select is down $4/mt, adding to yesterday’s small pullback.
  • Last trade was $2,216.5/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • LME aluminum prices are now essentially flat on the week while reports that the Biden administration could implement new sanctions against Russia take centerstage. Specifics about what industries could be impacted remain unclear, however. In late February 2023, the Biden administration imposed a 200% import tariff on Russian aluminum, effectively shutting out Russia from US markets. Any new tariffs or sanctions will likely have little impact on the flow of Russian metal into the US. (Source: Bloomberg)
• LME Copper 3M Select is up $24/mt, stalling near the highs of the month.
  • Last trade was $8,570/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • Rio Tinto, one of the world’s largest copper miners, reported its annual net income fell by 19% in 2023 amid lower prices and higher operational costs. Last year, copper production costs were $1.95/lb, compared to $1.63/lb. For 2024, Rio estimates production costs to be $1.40 to $1.60/lb due to higher volumes at two production sites. (Source: Rio Tinto)
• Prompt month CME HRC Steel last settled at $922/st (6:45 AM CST).
  • Prices for nickel, a key raw material for stainless steel production, have trended sideways for most of 2024. Investment funds, generally speculators in metals markets, have been net short LME nickel since late May 2023. This is the longest time they have been net short nickel since at least the pandemic in early 2020. Funds have been slowly adding to this position in early 2024, but contrary to normal price action, prices have been rangebound until recently. Unless these funds find a reason to do significant short covering, this position could remain a burden for LME nickel prices. (Source: LME)

Price Indications

Today's Charts

AEGIS Insights

2/21/2024: AEGIS Factor Matrices: Most important variables affecting metals prices

2/13/2024: Important US Economic Data (AEGIS Reference)

2/2/2024: China's Real Estate Woes Provide Opportunity for Copper Consumers

1/25/2024: Aluminum Starts 2024 On a Down Note, But Potential Supply Shocks Give Consumers a Reason to Hedge

1/4/2024: Year-End Review of LME Aluminum, Copper, CME HRC Steel and Hedging Implications for 2024

12/8/2023: Aluminum and Copper Markets Diverge but Hedging Opportunities Persist for End-Users

2/13/024: India's NALCO smashes third-quarter profit estimates on lower costs | Reuters

2/13/2024: Congo's Gecamines offers to buy some of Khazakh miner ERG's copper assets | Reuters

2/13/2024: Prices rose more than expected in January as inflation won’t go away

2/13/2024: India's NALCO smashes third-quarter profit estimates on lower costs

2/12/2024: China, Indonesia face deeper output cuts to tackle nickel price slide

2/12/2024: Glencore to halt New Caledonia nickel plant and sell stake

2/12/2024: Russia's dependence on exports to Asia rises as business with Europe falls | Reuters

Important Disclosure: Indicative prices are provided for information purposes only, and do not represent a commitment from AEGIS Hedging Solutions LLC ("Aegis") to assist any client to transact at those prices, or at any price, in the future. Aegis makes no guarantee to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Aegis and/or its trading principals do not offer a trading program to clients, nor do they propose guiding or directing a commodity interest account for any client based on any such trading program. Certain information in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements, which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “edge,” “advantage,” “opportunity,” “believe” or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Such statements are not guarantees of future performance or activities.